Some shows are coming in smaller than last year, and an equal number are coming in with larger orders than before. Most are unchanged. Over optimism? Not from what I am hearing in the field – entries remain strong, and few if any events are being canceled because of bad entry numbers. I will update this again when we are done with all of the winter sale numbers for this year.

At the USEF annual meeting, no one reported that they were cutting back on shows. At the Maryland Horse Expo we heard that participation at shows was off about 15%, but not enough to cancel events.

It does appear that cash flow concerns may be affecting the horse show community. Our customers are placing orders with less lead time than usual, and they are reluctant to part with money up front – to take advantage of our winter sale.

If you have anything to add or personalknowledge of where the show business is heading – please reply so we can all see where things are going.

http://www.nj.com/sports/njsports/index.ssf/2008/12/show_managers_bracing_for_fall.html

Now that the cost of fuel is headed downward ($3.86 a gallon sounds so much better than $4.11 doesn’t it?), we need to be mindful of the other costs like these involved in the horse business.

So far the largest effect that Hodges has seen is with shows becoming more economical and trying to save money on awards by combining ribbon orders to get volume discounts. A couple of shows have been canceled, but this happens every year and it is difficult to tell if this is due to the economy or other reasons – like sickness or change of ownership.

I expect that during the winter of 2008/2009 we will start to see if the current economic problems are going to have a major effect on the equestrian business. If our winter sale orders are well below historical norms, then I can tell you that things are trending downward. At the moment however, business seems to be no better, and no worse than in the past.

The need for horse trainers will never go away; the ability to pay for horse training will be affected by disposable income available. As owners feel a need to “cut back” in tougher economic periods, the trainers, tack retailers and horse show industry will feel pinched by tighter spending.

Starting in the training business will be tougher than ever. But, a trainer with talent will always be able to find work.

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My blog: http://douglasemerson.blogs.com/

Uncertainty and caution will prevail for a period, but I suspect, like you, that the fuel problem will be solved. Profit is a wonderful motivator for innovation.